Recession Looming for Texas Economy

By Boyd Nash-Stacey

The drop in oil prices and a weakened manufacturing sector suggest a high probability (90%) for Texas recession.

In addition, given our expectation for a more languid recovery in oil prices, Texas will likely follow a “U-shaped” recovery path—failing to recover to potential by 2019.  How will this impact the state’s economy, unemployment rate, and home prices? Large population outflows and weaker trade links between its major partners should be top-of-mind as Texas lawmakers craft policies for the state.